Selection of CMIP6 GCM with projection of climate over the Amu Darya River Basin

The most practical methods to predict climate change are global models (GCMs). This research set out evaluate the ability of 19 GCMs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) reproduce historical precipitation, maximum, and minimum temperature (Pr, Tmx, Tmn) prediction center data for Amu Darya river basin (ADRB), as well project using chosen GCMs. Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) metric was used assess effectiveness simulate annual geographic variability Pr, Tmn. A multi-criteria decision-making approach (MCDMA) integrate KGE values rank findings showed that AWI-CM-1–1-MR, CMCC-ESM2, INM-CM4-8, MPI-ESM1-2-LR best replicate observed Tmn in ADRB. Projection employing selected indicated an increase precipitation (9.9–12.4%), Tmx (1.3–4.9 °C), (1.3–5.5 °C) all shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), particularly far future (2060–2099). significant variation can be seen over different climatic zone. However, intercomparison GCM projected revealed high uncertainty climate. projection is noticed highest Tmx. also higher SSPs compared near lower SSPs.